(NewsNation) — Meteorologists are watching South Florida, particularly the Florida Keys, as Tropical Storm Rafael tracks toward the region.
The storm was situated west of Jamaica Tuesday and is expected to move across Cuba as a hurricane on Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.
From there, meteorologists expect Rafael to continue northwest through the Gulf of Mexico as it loses strength.
Warnings and watches in effect
A hurricane warning was in effect as of 4 p.m. ET for the Cayman Islands, the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Warnings are usually issued about 36 hours before the first possible tropical storm-force winds.
A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila as well as the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas area.
The Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas are under a tropical storm watch.
When will Rafael become a hurricane?
The tropical storm is forecast to become a hurricane when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands overnight Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Rafael will deliver heavy rain across parts of the western Caribbean through early Thursday. Those conditions are likely to hit Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba.
Flash flooding and mudslides will be possible along higher points of Jamaica and Cuba.
How could Rafael affect Florida?
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and mid-Florida Keys beginning Wednesday.
The Florida Keys will likely be closest to the storm’s path and could experience strong winds and downpours by late Wednesday into Thursday morning.
It is too soon to know what, if any, impacts Rafael could have on the northern Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 4 p.m. ET update.
Some Florida residents are still reeling from back-to-back hurricanes this season. Hurricane Helene hit the Big Bend region of Florida as a Category 4 storm on Sept. 26, killing more than 200 people and leaving a wake of destruction in its path.
At least 10 people are dead after Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 storm on Oct. 9.
