(NewsNation) — With former President Donald Trump showing an early lead with the “red mirage,” Vice President Kamala Harris has one easy way to victory if she takes all the “blue wall” states.
Since Harris began her presidential campaign, she has made multiple stops in critical states that experts say are part of the so-called “blue wall,” which is critical to winning the White House.
These “blue wall” states have typically voted for Democrats in presidential elections since 1992.
Recent history indicates that whoever wins the blue wall states wins the presidency. In 2016, that was former President Donald Trump. In 2020, it was President Joe Biden.
For this year’s election, it remains a toss-up between candidates.
As of Election Day, Decision Desk HQ projects that Trump won North Carolina, meaning Harris cannot afford to lose any blue wall states if she wants to win the election.
Which states are part of the blue wall?
California, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin are included as part of the “blue wall.” Of these, California is the largest, as it has 54 electoral votes, followed by New York with 28.
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, especially, are top priorities for candidates in the 2024 election. Trump, in 2016, flipped the states to Republican, but Biden was able to win them back in 2020.
Could Donald Trump break the blue wall?
NewsNation partner The Hill writes that Harris and Trump are polling within close margins of each other in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
“There’s no getting around the fact that those three states in the so-called blue wall are pivotal to both campaigns,” Al Mottur, a Democratic strategist and bundler at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, told The Hill.
Across the seven swing states, Trump has already taken Georgia and North Carolina, which means the Sunbelt could be key to a Republican victory.
NewsNation is providing live results tracking on major races nationwide powered by Decision Desk HQ. Watch live results from the presidential election, important swing states and the balance of power in Congress. NewsNation will also be tracking your local state electionsand ballot initiatives on issues like abortionand minimum wage around the country.
Will Kamala Harris win the blue wall?
Securing the blue all states could be Harris’ easiest way to victory because securing the blue wall means she likely secures the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
To win, Harris has to win all the blue wall states since she lost North Carolina to Trump.
Pennsylvania is now a “must-win” for Harris, according to NewsNation’s Connell McShane. The state is still too early to call and will likely take time to deliver results.
NewsNation’s Alex Caprariello and Kevin Bohn The Associated Press contributed to this report.
