NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 1 day to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • Polymarket betting odds: 57.5 to 42.5 in favor of Trump.
    • Note: This is tightening in Harris’ favor. 

Programming alert: We’ll be live tonight from 7 to 8 p.m. and then 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. with the closing rallies for both candidates.

• Among our guests: Bill O’Reilly, Frank Luntz, Mike Huckabee, Chris Stirewalt — the list goes on. 
• In tomorrow’s “War Notes”: Reckoning, what will come of each party if they lose?
• Help your friends: Go to warnotes.com and subscribe them. They will thank you for years, and it’s FREE! 

Before the heavy stuff, let’s have some fun:

OK, this is awesome: A Chinese immigrant running for Congress in New Hampshire bodyslams national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s wife in a congressional debate over who can relate to the working class.

• Please click here and watch — one of many reasons to love America! 

OUTRAGE: Someone in very blue suburban Boston sent fake Harris campaign postcards to people with Harris lawn signs asking them to accept illegal immigrants into their homes.  

• Click here to watch NBC 10 in Boston lose their mind over what federal laws may have been broken.
• A step further — two men dressed up as Harris staffers asking supporters to take in illegal immigrants.  

Now the Heavy Stuff!

A quick note: Anybody who tells you they know who will win the election doesn’t. 

• There are too many known unknowns, much less unknown unknowns.

Sure — Trump has a slight statistical advantage in most of the models and betting markets  55 to 45 or so. They build casinos in Vegas based on those odds. 

• ♠️ But on one hand of blackjack or one black or red roulette bet, anything can and will happen.
• Nate Silver says, “It’s a pure toss-up.”
• Mark Penn explains why nobody will make a prediction:
  • “The reason it has become so hard to pick a winner is that some groups favor Harris by wide margins and others favor Trump by wide margins, and no one knows the exact mix of those groups since presidential elections happen only once every four years.”
  • Go deeper: In the words of Mark Halperin,
    • “I continue to believe, and have for a while, that it’s not going to be close,” says @MarkHalperin of the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. “Either the makeup of the electorate is going to be 54 or 55 percent female and she’s going to win, or it’s not and she’s going to lose … I don’t think it’s going to be different state to state.”
• Penn is way smarter than I am, but I agree — as does my other smart friend Erick Erickson.
• Same direction: Suburban women, young Latino men, country club Republicans in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Milwaukee are pretty similar — they will all (likely) break the same way.
  • Another way to look at it:
    • If the polls are wrong like they were in 2016: Trump wins in a landslide.
    • If the polls are wrong like they were in 2022: Harris wins in a landslide.
    • Watch this from Chris Cillizza 
      • In both of those years, the polls across the swing states were wrong in the same direction. 
• Joy is back — at least at MSNBC.
  • “Canary in the coal mine:” The “Morning Joe” team celebrated this morning that women in Iowa were breaking for Harris by a 20-point margin.
    • If The Des Moines Register poll showing Harris up 3 in Iowa is correct, it will be a VERY early night.
      • The Des Moines Register writes, “Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.”
      • They continue, “Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.”  

Has Trump screwed this up?

• By every available measure, Donald Trump should win tomorrow night by a couple of touchdowns.
  • The economy. Immigration. Foreign policy. Crime.
    • Four of the five biggest issues should work in his favor. 
  • Harris, for whatever her strengths are, is an unquestionably bad candidate — hence why she got out of the 2020 race before Iowa.
    • Note: I know no Democrats who are excited about Harris but for her ability to stop Trump.
  • But, as evidenced above, this is a very, very close election. 
• Why? Donald Trump!!!
  • This weekend, he made reference to a would-be assassin shooting the media before shooting him — his campaign later tried to clean it up
  • He said he never should have left the White House. 
  • He talked about putting rifles in Liz Cheney’s face.

• Quote of the day from Tim Alberta’s article in The Atlantic:
  • “What’s discipline got to do with winning?”

Bill O’Reilly tonight … on why he thinks Trump will still win based on a surge in Republican registration and early voting numbers.

• Important question: Are the new Republican numbers just Republicans voting early, or are they new Republican voters?

The other side: Kamala Harris went full joy for her closing message — aka discipline.

• Thought bubble: Maybe that’s because Trump gave her the “nuts” headlines with comments above.
  • Never underestimate Republicans’ ability to screw things up.   

 “No comment candidate:” We know less about what will change with Harris. 

• Alex Thompson is out with a preelection must-read in Axios of Harris’ unique policy positions — which is to say, she refuses to say any of her positions 

What I am thinking: If she loses, it will have been the campaign of joyful emptiness. 

• Watch tonight: Rep. Glenn Ivey, D-Md., on whether being against Trump is enough.

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.